Testing for rational bubbles in a coexplosive vector autoregression

Lecture 6 : Vector Autoregression ∗

Structured Regularization for Large Vector Autoregression

The vector autoregression (VAR), has long proven to be an effective method for modeling the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series as well as forecasting. One of the major disadvantages of the VAR that has hindered its applicability is its heavy parameterization; the parameter space grows quadratically with the number of series included, quickly exhausting the available degrees of freedom....

A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model

Multivariate count models are rare in political science, despite the presence of many count time series. This article develops a new Bayesian Poisson vector autoregression (BaP-VAR) model that can characterize endogenous dynamic counts with no restrictions on the contemporaneous correlations. Impulse responses, decomposition of the forecast errors, and dynamic multiplier methods for the effects...

Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression*

We provide an accessible introduction to graph-theoretic methods for causal analysis. Building on the work of Swanson and Granger (Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 92, pp. 357–367, 1997), and generalizing to a larger class of models, we show how to apply graph-theoretic methods to selecting the causal order for a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We evaluate the PC (...

Rational and Irrational Bubbles